Coastal Management | Adaptation | Policy
September 21, 2025

Stinson underwater, Ocean Beach halved: California’s beach reckoning is here – SF Gate
Excerpt:
California’s most iconic feature is disappearing…
Ask anyone what image comes to mind when they picture California, and it won’t be long before they mention the beach. Wide, sandy shores with crashing waves that slide up and down the coastline. Kids and dogs splashing in the surf while bathing suit-clad adults luxuriate on brightly striped towels under colorful, oversized umbrellas. Beaches are the epitome of the California that’s sold in movies and TV, where the sun shines on perfect, cloudless days.
But the California of the future may not be so idyllic. Without action, the state’s beaches could soon disappear. Shoreline modeling photos from the U.S. Geological Survey show that in 100 years, the beachfront homes along a large section of Stinson Beach would likely be underwater. At Ocean Beach in San Francisco, the beach shrank to half its size. In one model, Santa Monica’s beach parking lot almost touches the waves.
By 2100, the water could creep up 1 meter, decreasing beaches by up to 75% without intervention. Almost everyone agrees that something needs to be done — it’s the “what” that’s causing problems. Beach nourishment, the act of adding sand to a beach, has become the current Band-Aid, but it’s an approach that no one seems to love.
The very nature of remediation is controversial, with private and public property and the environment in conflict. Big ideas from one camp seem to come at a high cost for the others, causing stalemate as the state’s shoreline slowly slips beneath the waves. As climate change accelerates every year and sea levels rise, the Golden State must grapple with whether to give up this iconic, fundamental part of its land…
Gary Griggs, an author and professor of earth and planetary sciences at UC Santa Cruz, acknowledged the benefits in protecting coastal property and supporting recreation, but emphasized the solution is typically short lived. So much so, there is a “strong rationale for terminating federal expenditures and dependence on short-term beach nourishment and planning for the inevitable long-term necessity of moving back from the shoreline,” he wrote in a recent paper.
Most coastal homeowners can’t fathom giving up property in service of a changing shoreline. But experts say they might have to, eventually. “We can’t expect our kids and our grandchildren to have the same house down there on the sand and enjoy it the way we did. That’s just the way climate is changing,” (Gary) Griggs said.
“No matter what we do, there’s no way we can stop the Pacific Ocean…”
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