A much-anticipated El Niño that developed this summer is on track to become the strongest ever recorded, with cascading effects on global climate peaking late this year and into next.

Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, where El Niño is measured, have been at record levels for more than two months straight.

El Niño’s effects have already been felt around the planet. The higher frequency of heat domes worldwide, the nonstop temperature records in Peru and deadly storms in Chile can all be linked to this pattern. As can the destructive typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean and the relative calm of the Atlantic hurricane season so far.

And this event is poised to grow more intense.

The Washington Post is tracking monthly updates to the forecast data, with the latest updates, from early August, showing that ocean temperatures in the central Pacific continue on a record trajectory. They’re projected to reach an average peak of around 4.1 degrees Celsius (7.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in December — more than a degree higher than a record-breaking El Niño in 2015.

The projected peak strength of El Niño has increased compared with forecasts issued in July.

Because raising the temperature of the ocean requires far more energy than warming the land, that shift would represent an extraordinary amount of warming.

In the graphics above, forecast scenarios, represented by the red boxes, show this El Niño reaching heights by the end of the year that have never been observed before.

These graphics and the ones that follow will be updated regularly as this El Niño — and its global impact — grows through the end of the year.

An El Niño of this magnitude is expected to drive significant weather effects, which could end up stronger and longer-lasting. Global temperatures will probably reach new highs, while patterns of drought, floods, heat and humidity will shift across the planet.

Already, sea surface temperature forecasts suggest this El Niño will top the most historically intense events on record, probably by a wide margin. Those events occurred in 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

This unprecedented warming may also bring an element of mystery, with some uncertainty around the extreme nature of the impacts that El Niño may trigger…